Revised forecast says expect a busier hurricane season

[Jess]

Enjoy Wimbledon!

[dylan]

The winds and rain really made their presence known in my neck of the woods these last couple days. But I agree with Blackford Oaks being from South Florida I'm used to it. The only real downer is having to do highway driving in bad rain that is always a bummer.

[Doug]

The number of storms per year is too few to make any sort of useful statistical inference about the future.

How do you mean? I think it's unusual to have this many storms when it's not even July yet.

[rk]

How do you mean? I think it's unusual to have this many storms when it's not even July yet.

Unusual, possibly, but not a predictor of how the rest of the season will go. For example, it may be (very!) unusual for it to go into the 30's the first 4 nights in January (in Miami), but it doesn't mean the rest of the month will be very cold.

[Doug]

Time will tell....

[northeast]

it certainly feel like we're getting more rain than we did in June last year. and not just quick thunderstorms that turn into sun after an hour, but rain and gloom that lasts most of the day.

[Doug]

Another factor to consider is the higher the water temperature the more likely it is for a storm to form and to rapidly gain strength. The water is already warm enough now for hurricanes to form, which is earlier than normal. So, this early heating of the water could very well mean that we could have a greater number of storms and storms of a higher intensity. Also, there is el nino to consider. This effect causes storms that have formed to be diminished by strong easterly air flow. It also tends to steer them away from the coast. Over the last few years, even though the water was very warm, many storms were diverted by these el nino air currents and sent back out into the Atlantic. You can often tell after the first few storms whether or not the el nino effect will be strong in a given season.